As Washington barrels toward the midterm elections, Cornerstone’s professionals have focused on preparing our clients and friends for the potential of a changing landscape in Washington.
Midterm Elections Outlook
As the country races towards election day, polling suggests the national environment currently favors Democratic candidates. However, we caution that margins historically tighten in the final weeks of campaigns.
Current projections suggest Democrats could secure a House majority of roughly 230 seats, though outcomes remain fluid. Senate control is expected to hinge on a handful of competitive races, particularly in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
Election Night Bellwethers
According to the our senior political operatives, Democratic victories in competitive districts of Florida’s 14th and 23rd could be early indicators of a good night for Democrats in the House. With Virginia’s polls closing at 7:00 p.m. ET on election night, the state’s competitive House races should also provide an early indication of the scale of any Democratic wave.
Cornerstone hosted a bipartisan midterm election preview panel at our Atlanta office, featuring Jeff Hamling, Lawrence Bell, Hyma Moore, and Mike Reed.
“Watch Florida and Virginia early.”
Senate Races to Watch
- Ohio: Expected to become the most expensive Senate race in the country, with spending projected to exceed $300 million.
- Texas: Republicans remain favored but are spending heavily to defend contested territory.
- Maine and Alaska: Both states have become unexpectedly competitive for the Senate incumbents Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-MA) with President Trump’s diminishing popularity in the states, and Canadian tariffs’ effect on their respective local markets.
If Democrats Take the House: What Comes Next?
Perhaps the most important takeaway is that organizations should expect a significant increase in House oversight activity if Democrats secure control of the chamber in the 120th Congress.
Our team reports that House Democrats have already signaled an agenda focused on:
- Corruption and ethics inquiries
- Cost-of-living pressures
- Consumer affordability concerns
- Oversight of Trump Administration actions and policies If executive branch cooperation is limited, committees may increasingly seek information from private-sector organizations, trade associations, and other outside stakeholders.
Policy Theme to Watch: Affordability
Across both parties, affordability is emerging as the defining political and policy issue heading into 2027. Cornerstone expects debates surrounding housing costs, energy prices, grocery costs, tariffs, and utility bills to dominate much of the congressional agenda.
Potential Democratic priorities could include legislation aimed at lowering housing, gas, energy, and grocery costs, as well as proposals to limit presidential tariff authorities. Many of these efforts may initially serve as messaging vehicles in a divided government, but they remain important indicators of policy direction.
Capitol Hill Oversight: Preparing Before the Letter Arrives
Congressional investigations remain one of Washington’s most powerful and unpredictable tools. During a recent Cornerstone panel discussion on congressional oversight, experts emphasized that there is no formal threshold for when investigations begin. Roughly half originate from public reporting and half from whistleblowers, meaning organizations often receive little warning before congressional scrutiny arrives.
Key Takeaways
- The first 48 hours following an inquiry are often the most consequential, as organizations frequently make messaging and response mistakes while scrambling to react.
- Congressional investigations differ from DOJ and inspector general investigations because they are often shaped by legal, political, policy, and public-relations considerations simultaneously.
- Cooperation remains the most effective strategy. Early engagement can help defuse issues before they escalate into public battles or subpoena fights.
- Non-compliance risks civil enforcement actions and referrals for contempt proceedings.
Why It Matters
Organizations operating in regulated industries, government contracting, healthcare, energy, technology, and consumer-facing sectors should assess potential vulnerabilities now rather than waiting for a congressional inquiry. Panelists stressed the value of coordinating legal, government affairs, and public affairs teams before an issue emerges.
In the Weeks Ahead
Cornerstone is continuing its election-series programming and will be closely tracking the lame-duck session, gubernatorial races, congressional control scenarios, and the policy implications of the incoming 120th Congress. Don’t miss your chance to catch our final “Midterms to Majority” webinar on the gubernatorial outlook on October 27 from 12:00 – 1:00 p.m. EST. Register here.
During this panel discussion, our bipartisan policy experts will break down key gubernatorial races and the dynamics shaping elections across the country. We invite you to join us and feel free to share with your colleagues!
Bottom Line: The political environment points toward heightened oversight, continued partisan competition, and a governing agenda increasingly centered on affordability. Organizations that prepare now will be best positioned to navigate the policy and reputational challenges that may follow Election Day.
Cornerstone Public Affairs named a finalist in PR Daily’s Nonprofit Communications Awards
We’re excited to share that our client, One Voice Against Cancer (OVAC), was recently named a finalist in PR Daily’s Nonprofit Communications Awards for our social media work. These awards recognize campaigns that raise awareness, inspire action, and deliver measurable results, often with limited budgets.
Our team has managed OVAC’s social media presence for several years, developing strategic content calendars, creating timely advocacy campaigns, and expanding its presence across X and LinkedIn to raise awareness of cancer research funding and advance its advocacy priorities. This work has helped significantly increase OVAC’s social media activity, engagement, and visibility among key audiences.
Cornerstone’s Erik Fatemi and Bianca Barrios attended the awards ceremony in New York City and had a great time celebrating the recognition!
Cornerstone’s Erik Fatemi and Bianca Barrios at the awards ceremony in NYC.
Cornerstone Public Affairs Staff hosts “Young Communicators Happy Hour”
Cornerstone’s Public Affairs associate team was proud to host the first “Young Communicators Happy Hour” in Washington, D.C. at The Dubliner. The team convened a diverse group of young professionals from agencies, Capitol Hill, Executive Branch, industries and non-profits.
Thanks to everyone who joined us for this fantastic event and helped make it a fun evening of catching up, connecting, and great conversation!
Want to be first to receive news from The Briefing Room? Subscribe to the e-newsletter here. To learn more about Cornerstone’s Public Affairs and Strategic Communications offerings, please click here.